2015 NBA Playoffs: Conference Finals

The Hawks-Cavs series is going to be a fascinating juxtaposition of team styles. The Hawks spread the ball out, favoring a pass over a shot and sharing the wealth. The Cavs, of course, hinge on the King, who is now playing without Love and (ostensibly) Irving. James is good enough to beat the Hawks by himself on a good night, but they’re good enough to beat James on a good night.

Add to that the fact that Atlanta is tired. For some reason, their lower seeded opponents have come roaring out of the gate, forcing 12 total games against the Nets and the Warriors. In the end, the Hawks prevailed, but they’re going to need to be at 100% to take on the Cavs. This one will be close, but I think Cleveland will advance in 7.

My Brier score so far is down to 0.189. Picking the Warriors is usually a safe bet.

2015 NBA Playoffs: Semis

My average Brier score through one full round is about 0.194. The biggest shock (to me) was Washington’s total domination of the Raptors. The Wizards are in full playoff mode, and they came to Atlanta with a ton of momentum.

The Hawks are really missing Sefolosha, and the 26 hour turn-around proved fatal in the 4th quarter against the much more rested Wizards.

A home loss puts Atlanta in a very bad position. After Sunday’s result, the Hawks’ chance to take the series dropped from a respectable 86% to an uncomfortable 64%. A win doesn’t do much good (back up to 66%), but another home loss would be all but detrimental (39%). If things start to get hot in the next game, perhaps a different strategy should be considered. The next home game is crucial for Atlanta (isn’t every game?).

The Warriors remain on top, but that’s no surprise to anyone. Full round-by-round numbers updated here.

2015 NBA Playoffs

Earlier this year I would have said that the Hawks look like the team to beat. But that’s changed. As everyone knows, the Warriors are poised to bring home the trophy, and by a wide margin.

Way down on the list, Atlanta and Cleveland are still technically in the running, although it’ll take perfect games to beat the Warriors. LeBron needs to hurry if he wants another title: he’s getting too old.

In previous years, I’ve used a best-of-seven model to get my numbers for this tournament. This doesn’t account for home advantage, and so I’ve updated the algorithm with a more mathematically sound (and far more complicated) equation in lieu of a simple n-choose-r binomial probability.

I’m not sure my bracket this year will outperform 2014 (which ended with a Brier score of 0.173). At the time of this writing, Portland and Toronto have dropped their first two games (at home). The Portland-Memphis series is 54/46 in the Blazer’s favor and statistically more likely to go to 6 games than any other outcome.

Round-by-round numbers here. Each team is given a probability of winning in that particular round; the bracket is calculated by the largest probability in each group. I’ll update that document after each complete round.

Basketball PDO

PDO is a common statistic used in hockey analysis to measure a team’s luck. It’s an attempt to quantify the unquantifiable. PDO is simply a combination of shooting percentage and save percentage while on the ice, and as such can be applied to individual players. It tends to regress to the mean, which makes it a useful tool when qualitatively reviewing a team’s performance and looking forward to future games. In general, the mean is expected to be 1000 (correlating to 100%).

I wanted to see if this stat could be applied to basketball. It’s not quite the same because shots are considered differently in hoops: a basketball shot attempt can be directly prevented from entering the net via a block, but since there is no goal-tending, the percentage of directly defended shots is much lower.

For the purposes of analysis, I decided to compare a team’s shooting percentage vs the shooting percentage of their opponents. This would seem to tie the stat more directly to skill rather than luck or other intangibles – sometimes a team just has an off night.

While a great deal of this stat is no doubt due to skill, it does seem to have a wide distribution across a season for an individual team.

Of course, there is some correlation between basketball PDO (bPDO) and winning percentage, with an R² of about 64%. This can help us analyze how well a team performed based on expectations – West Virginia came away with a 25-10 record despite posting atrocious FG% and opponent FG% numbers. That’s a whole other analytics can of worms.

I need to do some more analysis to determine if bPDO also regresses to the mean. This could boil down to a sound-byte like “Kentucky shot extremely well and defended extremely well, but it’s doubtful they can maintain that frenetic pace next season”. As mentioned before, bPDO loses some of the usefulness from hockey due to the lack of a defined goal defender. I’m looking forward to exploring this area a little more and maybe I can pull something useful out of the numbers.

Rk	Team	2014/15 bPDO
1	Kentucky	1117
2	Gonzaga	1105
3	Southern Methodist	1101
4	Virginia	1095
5	Northern Iowa	1088
6	North Carolina Central	1086
7	Utah	1085
8	Notre Dame	1082
9	Maryland-Eastern Shore	1080
11	Duke	1080
10	Arizona State	1079
12	California	1078
13	Villanova	1073
14	Evansville	1069
15	Ohio State	1067
16	Georgia Southern	1067
17	North Carolina-Wilmington	1067
18	Kansas State	1064
19	Vanderbilt	1061
20	Toledo	1060
21	Utah State	1059
22	Cincinnati	1059
23	Oklahoma	1058
24	Northeastern	1058
25	Vermont	1057
27	Valparaiso	1056
28	William & Mary	1055
29	Murray State	1055
26	Wisconsin	1052
30	Loyola (IL)	1052
31	Iowa State	1051
32	Texas	1051
33	Dayton	1051
34	Texas-El Paso	1050
35	High Point	1050
36	Baylor	1050
37	Georgia Tech	1050
38	Iowa	1049
39	Louisiana-Lafayette	1049
40	Norfolk State	1048
41	Lehigh	1048
42	Brigham Young	1048
43	Coastal Carolina	1046
44	Xavier	1046
45	New Mexico	1046
46	Wyoming	1045
47	Boise State	1045
48	Harvard	1045
49	North Florida	1045
50	George Washington	1044
51	South Dakota State	1043
52	Yale	1043
53	Texas A&M	1043
54	California-Davis	1041
55	St. John’s (NY)	1040
56	Sacramento State	1039
57	Buffalo	1039
58	Lafayette	1038
59	Pepperdine	1038
60	Albany (NY)	1038
61	Mississippi	1038
62	Monmouth	1038
63	Iona	1038
64	Nevada	1037
65	Sam Houston State	1036
66	Mercer	1036
67	Seattle	1036
68	Tennessee-Martin	1035
70	Butler	1035
69	Miami (FL)	1034
71	Louisiana State	1034
72	South Carolina Upstate	1034
73	Oregon	1034
74	Connecticut	1034
75	Florida Atlantic	1033
76	Wofford	1032
77	Winthrop	1032
78	Louisville	1032
79	Rhode Island	1032
80	Howard	1032
81	Idaho State	1030
82	Stephen F. Austin	1030
83	Davidson	1030
84	Cal State Northridge	1030
85	Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	1029
86	San Diego State	1028
87	Michigan	1027
88	Louisiana Tech	1027
89	Florida International	1026
90	Saint Mary’s (CA)	1026
91	Georgetown	1026
92	Wichita State	1026
93	Robert Morris	1026
94	Incarnate Word	1026
95	James Madison	1025
96	Central Michigan	1025
97	UCLA	1025
98	Indiana State	1025
99	Green Bay	1024
100	Tulsa	1024
101	Purdue	1024
102	IPFW	1024
103	New Mexico State	1024
104	Eastern Michigan	1023
105	Stanford	1023
106	New Hampshire	1023
107	Oklahoma State	1023
108	Mississippi Valley State	1023
109	Citadel	1022
110	Colorado State	1022
111	North Carolina-Asheville	1022
112	Alabama-Birmingham	1021
113	Colorado	1021
114	Florida Gulf Coast	1021
115	Liberty	1020
116	Colgate	1020
117	Alabama A&M	1020
118	Richmond	1020
119	Southern	1019
120	NJIT	1019
121	Maryland-Baltimore County	1019
122	Alabama State	1018
123	Providence	1018
124	Memphis	1018
125	Syracuse	1018
126	Illinois-Chicago	1018
127	Eastern Washington	1017
128	Bowling Green State	1016
129	Belmont	1016
130	Western Michigan	1016
131	Georgia	1016
132	Illinois State	1016
133	Grand Canyon	1016
134	Charlotte	1015
135	Old Dominion	1014
136	Western Kentucky	1014
137	Radford	1014
138	Minnesota	1014
139	Air Force	1014
140	American	1013
141	Eastern Kentucky	1013
142	Louisiana-Monroe	1013
143	Northwestern State	1012
144	Portland	1012
145	California-Riverside	1012
146	North Carolina	1012
147	Quinnipiac	1012
148	Princeton	1012
149	Cornell	1011
150	Drake	1011
151	Chattanooga	1011
152	Eastern Illinois	1010
153	Stony Brook	1010
154	Arkansas-Pine Bluff	1010
155	Texas Southern	1010
156	St. Bonaventure	1010
157	La Salle	1009
158	Washington	1009
159	Oregon State	1009
160	North Dakota	1008
161	SIU Edwardsville	1008
162	Cleveland State	1008
163	Texas-Arlington	1008
164	Kansas	1007
165	Brown	1007
166	Virginia Tech	1007
167	Boston University	1006
168	Sacred Heart	1006
169	Massachusetts-Lowell	1006
170	Northern Illinois	1006
171	Temple	1004
172	Hofstra	1004
173	North Carolina-Greensboro	1004
174	Houston	1004
175	Weber State	1004
176	Presbyterian	1003
177	South Carolina	1003
178	Montana State	1003
179	Texas Christian	1003
180	North Texas	1002
181	Seton Hall	1002
182	Kent State	1002
183	Portland State	1002
184	East Tennessee State	1002
185	Saint Francis (PA)	1002
186	Troy	1002
187	San Francisco	1001
188	Delaware	1001
189	Penn State	1001
190	Clemson	1001
191	Bryant	1001
192	Oral Roberts	1000
193	Cal State Bakersfield	1000
194	Northern Colorado	999
195	Saint Peter’s	998
196	Michigan State	997
197	Marquette	997
198	Nebraska-Omaha	996
199	Hawaii	996
200	Duquesne	996
201	Miami (OH)	996
202	Central Florida	996
203	Idaho	995
204	Texas State	995
205	Southern California	995
206	Long Beach State	995
207	Northern Arizona	994
208	Towson	994
209	Detroit Mercy	994
210	Arkansas-Little Rock	994
211	Pittsburgh	993
212	Rice	993
213	Canisius	993
214	Oakland	993
215	East Carolina	992
216	Lamar	992
217	South Alabama	992
218	Youngstown State	992
219	New Orleans	991
220	Northwestern	991
221	Arizona	991
222	Ohio	991
223	Columbia	991
224	Texas Tech	991
225	Bucknell	991
226	Furman	991
227	South Dakota	990
228	Texas-San Antonio	990
229	Creighton	990
230	California-Santa Barbara	989
231	Southeastern Louisiana	989
232	Indiana	989
233	Rider	989
234	Texas-Pan American	989
235	Fresno State	989
236	Delaware State	988
237	Nevada-Las Vegas	987
238	Dartmouth	987
239	Tennessee Tech	987
240	Western Carolina	987
241	Elon	986
242	Northern Kentucky	986
243	San Diego	985
244	Akron	985
245	George Mason	984
246	Morehead State	984
247	Manhattan	984
248	Southern Utah	984
249	Middle Tennessee	984
250	Boston College	983
251	Gardner-Webb	983
252	Long Island University	983
253	Tennessee State	982
254	Denver	982
255	Washington State	982
256	Wake Forest	981
257	Southeast Missouri State	981
258	Stetson	981
259	Marshall	981
260	Pennsylvania	980
261	Charleston Southern	980
262	Nebraska	980
263	Virginia Commonwealth	979
264	Loyola (MD)	979
265	Arkansas	979
266	Southern Illinois	979
267	Missouri State	979
268	Bethune-Cookman	979
269	Milwaukee	978
270	Florida State	978
271	Hampton	978
272	Prairie View	977
273	Central Connecticut State	977
274	Missouri	977
275	Fordham	976
276	South Florida	976
277	North Carolina State	975
278	Tennessee	974
279	Southern Mississippi	973
280	Saint Joseph’s	973
281	St. Francis (NY)	972
282	Longwood	972
283	Navy	971
284	Santa Clara	971
285	Wright State	971
286	Lipscomb	971
287	Cal Poly	970
288	Samford	970
289	North Carolina A&T	970
290	California-Irvine	970
291	Tulane	969
292	Rutgers	969
293	Marist	968
294	Army	968
295	Siena	968
296	Drexel	968
297	McNeese State	967
298	DePaul	967
299	Massachusetts	967
300	Maryland	966
301	Utah Valley	965
302	Cal State Fullerton	965
303	Kennesaw State	965
304	Jacksonville State	965
305	Houston Baptist	965
306	Pacific	964
307	Georgia State	964
308	Western Illinois	963
309	Auburn	962
310	Saint Louis	962
311	Ball State	962
312	Missouri-Kansas City	961
313	Fairfield	961
314	Nicholls State	961
315	Hartford	961
316	IUPUI	960
317	College of Charleston	960
318	North Dakota State	960
319	Alabama	960
320	Binghamton	959
321	Niagara	958
322	Appalachian State	957
323	Mount St. Mary’s	957
324	Jacksonville	956
325	Holy Cross	956
326	Loyola Marymount	955
327	Florida A&M	955
328	Arkansas State	953
329	Campbell	950
330	Grambling	949
331	Abilene Christian	948
332	South Carolina State	948
333	Bradley	946
334	Fairleigh Dickinson	946
335	Illinois	944
336	Florida	942
337	Central Arkansas	942
338	Austin Peay	937
339	Jackson State	936
340	West Virginia	933
341	Maine	932
342	Wagner	930
343	Montana	929
344	Alcorn State	929
345	Mississippi State	928
346	Coppin State	924
347	Chicago State	920
348	VMI	916
349	Savannah State	904
350	San Jose State	900
351	Morgan State	884

NFL Week 10

Keep an eye on the #13 Lions. They’re only 7-2 right now but I have them going 13-3 to end the season. That’s certainly a best case scenario, but it puts them right behind #2 Denver at 14-2.

In addition to the Lions, there are a handful of other teams in the high teens predicted to finish with 10+ wins. Talk about mid-season blues. The #17 Saints have the easiest schedule remaining, while the #16 Seahawks have the hardest. If Brees can stop turning the ball over on crucial downs, they might actually make the playoffs.

1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Cardinals
4. Chargers
5. Eagles
6. more…

The chart below shows the rankings of every team through the season, with every #1 team highlighted.

FBS Week 11

There’s no denying almost everyone in the world disagrees with my incumbent #1, except for Marshall fans. So here’s my partial defense: the Herd (so far) is supposed to beat all their opponents. They have, in spectacular fashion, thanks to Cato. Therefore, they have performed to a perfect standard given the expectations.

I talked last week about Marshall’s low SO. These rankings are not biased towards it, however. Margin of victory is taken into account, and scaled down to boot, so that impressive performances (like #2 Baylor and #5 TCU) are good for your ranking but won’t automatically vault you to the top. Turns out the rankings don’t change that much as the maximum margin of victory cut-off is shortened (currently it’s 30, which is still less than some studies have it). Winning helps. Winning big helps more.

1. Marshall
2. Baylor
3. Mississippi St.
4. Auburn
5. TCU
6. more…

The chart below shows the rankings of every team through the season, with every #1 team highlighted.

NBA, Week 1

This is a little late: I’d meant to post this Thursday morning after Wednesday’s games. Stuff happens.

One thing I noticed last year is the extreme parity in the strength of opponents. Obviously it’s helped by the fact that there are 82 games, but still it’s a bit odd to see everyone’s SO+ hovering around 50 (of 100). This early in the season, one number stands out: the #2 Rockets have a SO- of just 26.1, and an outstanding 6-0. The only team with an easier schedule so far is the #13 Suns, who aren’t helped by their 3-2 record.

On the other hand, the #24 Spurs have faced the toughest schedule so far (82), going just 2-2.

More previews: the #19 Celtics should get much better. The #29 76ers are going to be so, so, so bad this year, again, and the #23 Thunder might be thankful there’s a team worse than them.

I love early season projections!

1. Warriors
2. Rockets
3. Grizzlies
4. Kings
5. Raptors
6. more…

NFL Week 9

The #1 Patriots have had a twisted rise to the top spot, as it took Brady a while to figure out how exactly a healthy Gronk works (extremely well, as it turns out).

Big Ben has figured out…something for the #3 Steelers. This is an unexpected turn of events, so he better keep up his mind-blowing performance. Has the spirit departed from Manning?

To add to the confusion, Mark Sanchez is good all of a sudden. Any given Sunday…

1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Steelers
4. Cardinals
5. Eagles
6. more…

The chart below shows the rankings of every team through the season, with every #1 team highlighted.

FBS Week 10

Well, no surprises this week. #1 Marshall, facing the 13th easiest schedule, continues to rack up points. #2 Auburn and #3 Mississippi State control the SEC; even Bama sits below them at #10. #14 Florida State continues to somehow win games, and I don’t think that’ll stop anytime soon.

I continue to be pleasantly surprised at #11 Georgia Southern. Even though their schedule doesn’t really allow us to see what they’re capable of, they are far exceeding expectations.

1. Marshall
2. Auburn
3. Mississippi State
4. Baylor
5. Ohio State
6. more…

The chart below shows the rankings of every team through the season, with every #1 team highlighted.

NBA Preseason Rankings

Yes, I know the season has technically started. I’m a busy man. So let’s pretend that the three games so far have NOT been played.

Then let’s pretend the regular season matters.

Then let’s pretend the preseason matters, while we’re dreaming. Good, let the suspension of disbelief flow through you.

Something interesting about these numbers is that it appears that the actually good teams are near the bottom (since they rest their valuable starters) while the bad teams play their starters and beat the benches. This is the first year I’ve ranked NBA preseason, so I’ll keep tabs on whether or not these rankings are inversely related to the real season.

The exception to this observation is the 76ers, who cannot possibly be worse than in real games, but apparently continue to defy reality.

Rank	Team	WVARA	CWVARA	W-L	PROJ	SW-	SW+	SO-	SO+
#1	Raptors	4.3138	4.8766	6-1	49-40	46.1	56.4	44.8	48.9
#2	Warriors	2.8003	7.6974	6-2	48-42	82.8	48.8	22.1	47.4
#3	Pelicans	2.6434	4.2722	5-2	84-5	70.5	86.7	47.6	45.9
#4	Suns	2.4131	-0.7549	4-2	56-32	72.6	63.6	31.7	46.4
#5	Cavaliers	1.8980	4.8740	4-2	41-47	50.9	44.7	34.4	49.3
#6	Timberwolves	1.7369	7.5574	5-2	71-18	73.7	70.9	29.1	48.1
#7	Jazz	1.6342	5.9252	5-3	71-19	80.4	73.6	35.8	46.5
#8	Hawks	1.5165	3.4175	4-3	52-37	60.8	57.1	41.4	47.6
#9	Celtics	1.3899	1.3899	5-3	72-18	76.3	68.9	52.5	49.1
#10	Rockets	1.2407	1.9131	6-2	58-32	64.9	57.0	54.2	48.1
#11	Pistons	1.1679	5.2547	5-2	66-23	67.9	64.8	41.0	49.8
#12	Knicks	1.0439	2.3851	3-4	25-64	32.9	37.4	55.7	48.9
#13	Magic	0.9036	4.9060	3-4	26-63	32.6	36.3	40.0	50.2
#14	Blazers	0.7484	0.4465	3-3	51-37	46.8	57.3	31.7	47.1
#15	Bulls	0.5835	-1.1931	4-4	45-45	54.4	54.9	50.4	50.2
#16	Nets	0.5289	-2.1142	3-2	60-27	52.1	62.0	34.7	50.6
#17	Mavericks	0.3122	-0.3237	4-4	47-43	59.9	52.9	52.5	49.6
#18	Pacers	-0.2490	-3.7146	3-4	58-31	49.9	61.8	58.6	49.5
#19	Heat	-0.9755	-12.1363	4-4	55-35	58.7	60.2	64.6	50.0
#20	Lakers	-1.0793	-5.2111	3-5	25-65	21.2	33.6	62.1	49.1
#21	Wizards	-1.4121	-5.2740	3-4	35-54	43.0	36.4	57.1	50.6
#22	Thunder	-1.5824	-6.5266	2-5	12-77	10.4	19.7	58.1	50.3
#23	Bobcats	-1.6079	4.2932	3-5	12-78	36.5	18.8	47.1	52.1
#24	Bucks	-1.7574	-5.9429	3-4	37-52	43.9	48.3	61.9	51.5
#25	Grizzlies	-2.5376	-5.1655	2-5	19-70	32.8	28.7	53.8	48.9
#26	Kings	-2.7136	0.8038	2-4	64-24	57.3	65.8	55.0	49.3
#27	Spurs	-3.0063	-4.8869	1-4	20-67	19.5	29.8	60.7	49.6
#28	76ers	-3.0336	-9.0453	2-6	32-58	33.6	36.9	58.8	52.2
#29	Nuggets	-3.0618	-3.5400	2-6	32-58	41.9	42.0	54.6	49.8
#30	Clippers	-3.4537	-3.0757	2-6	14-76	17.8	25.0	67.1	50.0